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The Economist
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- 1US mortgage rates top 7% as bond yields surge●Mortgage rates break past 7% as bond yields surge, deepening U.S. housing gridlock
Average US mortgage rates have climbed above 7% after a sharp rise in Treasury bond yields, worsening an already frozen housing market. Higher borrowing costs are pricing out buyers, discouraging homeowners with lower locked-in rates from selling, and deepening the gridlock between sellers, buyers and lenders. Economists warn affordability could deteriorate further if yields keep climbing.
- 2Economists warn US $40 trillion debt problem worse than Japan's▼Japan’s debt is twice the size of its economy—but economists warn U.S.’s $40 trillion sum is worse
Japan's national debt stands at roughly twice the size of its economy, the highest debt-to-GDP ratio among advanced nations. Despite this, economists argue the United States' debt burden—now around $40 trillion—is the more worrying case, citing the faster pace of American borrowing, rising interest costs, and fewer domestic savings to absorb government bonds.
- 3Mortgage Rates Hit 7%, Deepening Homeowners' Lock-In Effect●As Mortgage Rates Hit 7%, the Lock-In Effect Gets Stronger
Mortgage rates in the United States have reached 7%, strengthening the so-called lock-in effect, in which homeowners with cheaper existing loans refuse to sell and take on a new, costlier mortgage. The development tightens housing supply and keeps prices elevated, leaving prospective buyers facing both high borrowing costs and limited inventory.
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The Economist argues that falling student test scores around the world amount to a slow-moving catastrophe, with learning losses that could depress economic growth and widen inequality for decades. The leader column is drawing wide attention, with readers debating causes ranging from pandemic school closures to smartphones and changing teaching methods, and what governments should do to reverse the decline.
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Forecasts of another interest rate increase by the Reserve Bank of Australia are fuelling concerns that the economy could tip into recession. Observers warn that tighter monetary policy, aimed at curbing inflation, risks slowing growth and pushing borrowing costs higher for households and businesses. Analysts are watching the central bank's next decision closely to gauge how far it will go.
- 6Egypt's central bank lowers inflation forecasts, holds rates▼CBE lowers inflation forecasts, keeps key rates unchanged
The Central Bank of Egypt has revised down its inflation forecasts while keeping its key interest rates unchanged. The decision signals that policymakers see price pressures easing, but prefer to wait for more evidence before loosening monetary policy. Economists are weighing what the improved outlook means for the timing of future rate cuts and for Egypt's broader economic reform programme.
- 7Big Tech issues up to $300bn in AI debt guarantees●“ #BigTech companies are rapidly expanding their use of #guarantees to back debt for #AI #datacentres and #chips , issui
Big technology companies are rapidly expanding the use of guarantees to back debt financing for AI datacentres and chips, issuing as much as $300bn in commitments in under a year, according to commentary circulating from Adam Tooze. The concern is that much of this exposure is recorded off balance sheets, meaning the scale of contingent liabilities tied to the AI buildout is largely invisible to investors.
- 8Economists divided on whether the Fed will raise rates●Will the Fed raise interest rates this year? Divided economists weigh in
Economists are split over whether the US Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this year. ABC News reports that analysts disagree on the outlook, with arguments on both sides about inflation pressures, labor market strength, and the risk of slowing growth. The division reflects genuine uncertainty about how the economy will perform in the months ahead, leaving markets and businesses unsure about borrowing costs.
- 9Germany's EV boom forces rethink of road funding●🇩🇪 Germany’s EV boom is moving so fast it is forcing a rethink of road funding Germany’s accelerating shift to electric
Germany's rapid shift to electric vehicles is cutting emissions but also eroding fuel-tax revenue that finances road maintenance. The pace of the transition has pushed policymakers to consider redesigning how roads are funded, sparking debate among economists and commentators about alternatives such as distance-based charges and other road-user fees to replace declining fuel taxes.
- 10California layoffs decline in economic surprise▼Economic surprise: California layoffs on the decline
New figures show layoffs in California are on the decline, a development the Orange County Register describes as an economic surprise. The drop comes despite widespread concerns about a weakening labor market, offering an unexpectedly positive signal about the state's employment picture.
- 11Former Bank of England economist warns Britain on 'thin fiscal ice'●Britain is ‘SKATING ON THIN FISCAL ICE’ - former Bank of England economist
A former Bank of England economist has warned that Britain is 'skating on thin fiscal ice', sharply criticising the state of the UK's public finances. The remarks, made in an interview with Channel 4 News, are drawing wide attention as debate continues over government borrowing, debt levels and the pressure on the chancellor ahead of upcoming fiscal statements.
- 12Nobel laureates back California billionaire tax in open letter●Economics Nobel Laureates' Letter Supporting the California Billionaire Tax [pdf]
A group of Nobel Prize-winning economists has signed a public letter voicing support for the proposed tax on billionaires' wealth in California. The letter, hosted by economist Gabriel Zucman, a leading advocate of wealth taxation, argues the levy is economically sound. Supporters say endorsements from such prominent economists strengthen the measure's credibility against critics who claim it would drive the wealthy out of the state.
- 13Big four banks unanimous RBA will lift rates next week●Big four banks now unanimous the RBA will lift rates next week | Finance Report | ABC NEWS
Australia's four major banks now all expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to raise interest rates at its next meeting, according to ABC News' finance report. The unanimous forecast marks a shift in market expectations, and borrowers are watching closely as economists debate how far the central bank will go to curb inflation.
- 14AMP economist says Brisbane houses 61% overvalued●Brisbane houses 61% overvalued: AMP's Shane Oliver
AMP chief economist Shane Oliver says Brisbane houses are 61% overvalued, a striking assessment of Australia's property market after years of rapid price growth. The claim adds to debate about how stretched Australian housing has become, with Brisbane singled out among the most expensive cities relative to fundamentals. It is likely to fuel discussion among buyers, homeowners and analysts weighing whether prices can hold.
- 15EU Industrial Production Index Edges Down in Second Quarter▼Eurostat EI_ISIND_Q Update: EU Industry Index at 100.4 in Q1 2026, 100.2 in Q2 - News and Statistics
Eurostat's industrial production index for the EU, indicator EI_ISIND_Q, registered 100.4 in the first quarter of 2026 and eased to 100.2 in the second quarter. The figures suggest euro area industrial output held broadly steady near its reference level, with a marginal slowdown at the start of the year's second half. Analysts are watching the series for signs of whether the bloc's manufacturing sector is stabilising after recent weakness, as the data feed into assessments of EU economic growth and monetary policy expectations.
- 16UCSB Economist Shelly Lundberg Wins 2026 Mincer Award▼UCSB Economist Shelly Lundberg Wins 2026 Mincer Award, Releases Book
Shelly Lundberg, an economist at the University of California, Santa Barbara, has won the 2026 Mincer Award, recognizing her contributions to labor economics. The announcement coincides with the release of her new book. The Mincer Award honors major scholarly achievement in the field, and Lundberg's work on family economics and household decision-making has long been influential among economists.