ASPI

Iran is rerouting trade toward the Caspian Sea after war disrupted shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, the vital waterway that has long carried the bulk of its commerce. The move highlights how the conflict is reshaping Iranian supply lines, pushing trade toward northern corridors and overland connections with Central Asia as Gulf access becomes increasingly unreliable.

Analysts at ASPI's Strategist argue that if China seizes Taiwan, Japan could abandon its long-standing nuclear restraint and develop its own atomic arsenal, a prospect described as revolting to Beijing. The piece says Chinese aggression in the region could ultimately trigger exactly the nuclear-armed Japan the CCP most dreads.